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SUMMARY OFFICIAL FORECASTS & MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 
Source: CBRT, SIS, UT           Latest  %D on same period year ago        1996     1997    1998   1999     2000      2001     2002     2003

2004

   2005 6.05* - - - - -6.4* - 64.3 5      2006T
Real GNP (% change)  6.3 (2006Q1)   7.12  8,29  3.86  -6.08   6.34   -9.43  7.8  5.9 9.9 7.6 -
Real GDP (% change)  6.4 (2006Q1)  7,01 7,53  3.09  -4.71   7.36   -7.39   7.8   5.8  8.9  7.4  -
GNP (US$ billion) 360.9 (2005)  183.6   192.4   206.6   185.2  201.2  148.2 182.6 238.9 301.8 360.9 -
GDP (US$ billion) 361.5 (2005)  181.1  188.7  201.6  183.2  199.6  149.8   184.3  241.0  302.9 361.5
GNP per  Capita (US$)  5,008 (2005)  2,928 3,079 3,255 2,879 2,986  2,123 2,584  3,383 4,172 5,008 -
Unemployment Rate(%)  9.9 2006Q2    6.0     6.4   6.8   7.3   6,6 8,5 11,4 10,3 10.0 -  - 
Industrial Output (%D y-o-y 11.4 Jun  7.12    10.4   2.01  -5.02  -6.05  -7.54  9.1  9.1  9.8 5.3  - 
PSBR/GNP (%) 4.3 (2004)  8.6     7.7   9.4  15.5  11.8  16.4 12.7 8.7 4.3 -   -
CPI y-o-y   11.69 Jul 79.8    99.1   69.7   68.8   39.0  68.5     29.8     18.4    9.32  7.72   -
PPI y-o-y (WPI pre-2005)  14.34 Jul  84.9    91.0   54.3   62.9  32.7  88.6     30.8     13.9    13.84  2.66   -
AveO/N Interbank Interest Rate% 13.5 H1 - 76.5 70.4 74.5 73.2 54.1 93.2 49.5 36.0 21.8 14.8 -
%Dy-o-y end-period TL/US$  8.68 Aug 15  76.1    90.5   52.7   72.7   24.4   114.3  13.3   15.9  -3.85 0.41   - 
TL/US$  (average)  1.3698 H1 - 81,836 152,071 261,05 420,126 623,704 1,225,412 1,505,840 1,493,068 1,422,341 1.34079 -
TL/US$ (bid end-period)  1.4657 Aug 15  8.68  107,505 204,750 312,720 540,098 671,765 1,446,638 1,639,745 1,393,278 1,336,300 1.3418 -
TL/Є (bid end-period)   1.866 Aug 15   11.7   -   -   -  542.096 618.561 1,281,287   1,718,945   1,757,480   1,826,800 1.5875
Exports,   (US$ bn)   39.5 H1 11.5 32.4  32.6  31.2  29,3 31,7 35.3 39.95 46.9 63.0 73.1  - 
Imports,   (US$ bn)  65.2 H1 18.3 43.0  48.60  45.4  39.8   54.0  39.7 48.5 68.7 97.3 116.1  - 
Trade Balance (US$ bn)  -25.7 H1  30. -10.6  -15.4  -14.2  -10.4    -22.4   -4.5       -8.6     -21.9    -34.3 -42.9  - 
Current Acct Bal (US$bn)  -18.66 H1 -2.44  -2.64     1.98  -1.36   -9.82    3.40    -1.79    -6.8   -15.5  -22.9    - 
CA % of GNP  -1.33  -1.37       0.96  -0.73   - 4.88  2.29  -0.99  -2.85  -5.14 -6.35   - 
FX Reserves (US$ bn)  57.4 Aug 4   16.3      18.4       19.7   23.2   22.2   18.8      26.7     33.6    36.0 50.5  - 
External Debt (US$ bn)  185.0 (2006Q1)   -     79.2     84.3      96.4    103.0  118.6  113.7     130.2    145.4    161.7 170.1  - 
% of GNP  - 43.1     42.8    45.5    53.9    58.9   78.9 71.3 60.8 53.6 47.1  - 
Debt Service/Exports  46.8 (2006Q1) 49.16   47.29   61.22    68.89   78.98   78.6   80.01   58.77  48.4 49.7 -

  1. Note that as a result of currency reform at the start of 2005, six zeros were erased from Lira prices. Thus, at end-2004 US$1 = TL 1,342,100 would now read US$1 = YTL 1.3421 (YTL- Yeni Turk Lirasi; New Turkish Lira).

  2. Official forecasts/targets are often revised mid-year. The above table provides the initial projections. Please refer to the link on the left margin for latest updates, should it be available.

  3. Official forecasts in Turkey are provided by the Central Bank, Ministry of Finance, State Institute of Statistics, State Planning Organization, and Treasury. CBRT produces regular tendency surveys.  Forecasts of the various agencies are frequently, but not always, consistent with projections from other agencies. Differences may also arise because some agencies update releases more often. Domestic official projections should also match IMF forecasts because Turkey has periodically been implementing IMF schemes. Please bear in mind that official projections are, in a sense, targets

  4. Fcast Turkey section is on hold; refer instead to detailed international agency projections or state targets by following the links on the left border of this page.

 

 

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Copyright 2002 Forecast Turkey
Last modified: Tuesday December 18, 2007