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Curriculum Vitae




                      GIYAS M. GÖKKENT




§         Acting Chair, Finance Department                                                     2004 –   

 ABU DHABI UNIVERSITY                                                                                             Abu Dhabi, U.A.E.

Taught 'Business Law’, 'Microeconomics', 'Macroeconomics', 'Statistics' ; Promoted to Acting Chair of the Department of  Finance in August 2005; Helped develop a bachelor's degree program in accounting and an MBA program. English language curriculum.

§         Assistant  Professor                                                                        2003 –  2004

 HAS UNIVERSITY                                                                                                      ISTANBUL, TURKEY

Taught ‘International Economics’, 'International Monetary Economics', 'Global Financial Markets & Institutions', 'Multinational Financial Management',  and ‘The Turkish Banking System’; English language curriculum.

§         Assistant Professor                                                                     1999 – May 2002

 IŞIK UNIVERSITY                                                                                                      ISTANBUL, TURKEY

Taught  'Managerial Economics’ to MBA students and ‘International Trade’ to Senior year undergraduates; English language curriculum.   

§         Economist                                                                                      1999 - Aug 2002

 T. GARANTI BANK                                                                             ISTANBUL, TURKEY

Promoted to Assistant Director in 2000. Developed macro-econometric country model; Forecast key macroeconomic variables; preparation of an English quarterly (link to sample report) and monthly report on the Turkish economy, preparation of regular and irregular reports in Turkish (link to sample report), provided weekly seminars to various departments at the bank on current economic developments, briefed top management and counterparts from foreign banks on the outlook for the Turkish economy. Headed a project aimed at setting up an ‘economics portal’ on the internet. Founded ‘Forecast Group Turkey’, with economists from 12 other institutions contributing monthly macroeconomic forecasts. Key member of an open position committee to advise on currency risk to Volkswagen-Doğuş Auto Finance A.Ş. following a presentation to Volkswagen A.G. and VDF executives.

§         Adjunct Professor                                                                                             1998

MIAMI DADE COLLEGE                                                                                       MIAMI, U.S.A.       

§         Teaching Assistantship                                                                          1995 - 1997

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY                                                         MIAMI, FLORIDA

Taught undergraduate level micro and macroeconomics; Tutored graduate level Public Administration Course – Applications of economic theory ranging from demand elasticity estimation, cost/benefit analysis, impact of fiscal policy changes on firms, etc.

§           Research Assistantship                                                                         1993 - 1994

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY                                                          MIAMI, FLORIDA

Research for a volume on foreign investment in the US & on free-standing firms.

§         Insurance Agent                                                                                    1992 - 1993

INSURANCE CENTER OF CENTRAL FLORIDA                                          MELBOURNE, U.S.A.

Sold life and health insurance for a multi-line company.  


§         Ph.D., Economics                                                                                           1997

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY                                                             MIAMI, U.S.A.

Dissertation Title: Theory of Foreign Portfolio Investment. Examined home preference shown by investors, and relative volatility of foreign portfolio investment.

§         M.A., Economics                                                                                             1994

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY                                                             MIAMI, U.S.A.

§         B.A., Economics                                                                                              1991

UNIVERSITY OF  FLORIDA                                                                      GAINESVILLE, U.S.A.

Degree earned in 2 years and 8 months.

§         “O” and “A” levels                                                                                             1988

DOVER COLLEGE                                                                                              DOVER, U.K.

Passed nine “O” level courses. Awarded scholarship. Received A in Advanced Level Economics.


§         French, Turkish, Arabic and some Spanish.

§         Software – Econometric Views, SAS, SPSS, AmiPro, Access, Word, WordPerfect, Excel, Frontpage, Lotus, Adobe Photoshop,  Powerpoint, Publisher, Reuters Kobra.


§         Florida International University, Department of Economics awarded assistantship for graduate study.

§         Dover College awarded scholarship for 'A' level studies.


§         TUSIAD (Association of Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen) advisory committees:

-            Economics advisory committee – member since March 2001 

      - proposed and aided in publication of monthly consensus macroeconomic forecasts           

-            Banking sector advisory committee – member since June 2001

     - proposed and took part in a study examining costs faced by the Turkish banking system; please refer to the publications above.

     - participated in a study examining impact of Basel II on sovereign borrowing, banking and industrial sectors in Turkey.

§        Omicron Delta Epsilon, Eco. Intl. Honor Society


§         Date of Birth: November 11, 1969                      

§         Marital Status: Single

§         Military Service Completion : February 2, 1999

Publications / Conferences

§         “Simultaneous Home Bias and Cross-Holding of Assets Under Information Asymmetry”, Economia Internazionale, February 1999.  

Abstract: Investors worldwide hold most of their assets in terms of domestic assets. This phenomenon of home preference seems to co-exist with some degree of cross-holding of assets across countries. Traditional explanations of capital flows based either on interest rate differentials or on portfolio motives do not explain these facts. This paper offers a model based on information asymmetry between domestic residents and foreigners in order to accommodate these empirical observations. In other words, the paper reconciles empirical observation of the existence of home preference - alongside crossholdings - with theoretical predictions of diversification in agents’ portfolios. The model elucidates how home preference behaves when a relevant variable - such as the rate of return - changes. These are then tested using panel data regression. JEL Classification: F21, G10, G11

§         “Simultaneous Home Bias and Cross-Holding of Assets Under Information Asymmetry”, presented at Department of Economics, Bilgi University, April 1999 & Bogazici University, May 2003.

§         “Turkish Monetary Policy in 2000 and Beyond”, Turco-German Chamber of Industry, Çırağan Kempinski Istanbul, February 2nd, 2000.

§         “The Turkish Economy”, Euromoney,  August 2000.

§         “Misplaced Faith in Autocontrol Mechanisms Begs for Proactive Policy”, Investor, #13: 25-31, August 2000.

§         “Challenges Facing the Turkish Banking Sector Post-Stabilization”(in Turkish), Iktisat, Işletme & Finans, #174: 68-84, September 2000.  

Ozet: 1998 ve 1999 yılları bankacılık sektörünün büyüme hızı  açısından altın dönemlerinden biridir. Önümüze çıkan çelişki ise 1999 yılında 5 bankaya el konulmuş olmasıdır. 2001 yılından itibaren bankaların menkul değerler portföylerinin getiri oranlarının düşmesiyle beraber sektörel büyümenin olumsuz etkilenmesi muhtemeldir. Bunun idrakında olan bankalar devlete borç vermek yerine özel sektöre giderek artan miktarlarda borç vermeye başlamışlardır. Kredilerdeki canlanma ekonomik faaliyeti olumlu yönde etkileyip banka sektörünün büyümesine katkıda bulunacaktır. Diğer bir taraftan artan kredi miktarı, kredi kalitesinde bozulmaya sebep verecektir. Bu bozulma işçevriminin büyüme sürecini terk edip, bir kaç yıl sonra tekrar duraklama sürecine girmesiyle bankacılık sektörünü tehdit edebilecek bir unsurdur.  Dolayısıyla, bankacılık sektörü devlet borçlanma araçlarından kaybedeceği gelirin karlılık üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini telafi etmek için iki yola başvuracaktır. Özel sektöre verilen krediler artırılıp gelir artırıcı önlem alınıp, sistemin verimliliğini artırarak maliyet azaltmak denenecektir. Böylece sektörde istihdam düşecek, banka sayısı azalacak, ve yine de herşeye rağmen karlılık düşecektir. Özel sektöre verilen kredi miktarı IMF tahminlerine dayanarak yaptığımız çalışmaya göre 2000’de US$ 5 milyar, 2001 ve 2002’de her yıl US$ 7 milyar civarında artacaktır.  Buna karşın 2001’de milli gelirin  %6-%7’si  (2002’de %2-%3) civarına kısılması planlanan bütçe açıklarının azalması toplam yurtiçi kredi hacminin milli gelire oranında daralmaya yol açacaktır. Dolayısıyla bankacılık sektörünün büyüme hızı, hem nispeten düşük marjlar, hem de  milli gelire oranı düşen yurtiçi kredi miktarıyla, 1998 ve 1999’a göre azalacaktır. Yaptığımız ekonometrik modelleme bankacılık sektörünün büyüme hızının devlet harcamaları, reel faiz değişkenleriyle bağlantısını tespit etmiş olup, 2001 yılından itibaren büyüme hızının geçtiğimiz bir kaç yıla mukayese edilemiyeceğini desteklemektedir.Türkiye’de 2000 yılı başında uygulamaya konulan kur’a dayalı istikrar programının yan etkilerinden bir tanesi TL faiz hadlerindeki gerileme olmuştur. TCMB, kur politikasını hedeflediği toptan eşya fiyat endeksi artışına bağlamıştır. Bu politikanın sürmesi halinde 2001 Temmuz ayına kadar kesin, 2003 yılına kadar tahmini olmak üzere Türk Lirasının euro-dolar sepete karşı olan değerini aylık (ve hatta günlük) bazda biliyoruz. TCMB’nin 2000 yıl sonu TEFE hedefi %20, 2001’de %10, 2002’de %5’tir. Bu maliyet hesaplarını basitleştiren bir unsurdur. Liranın ana para birimlerine karşı değer kaybının yavaşlaması faiz hadlerini sür’atli bir şekilde düşürmüştür. Fakat, TCMB’nin kur hedeflemesini temel politika olarak benimsemesi parasal otoritenin kısa vadeli faiz haddi üzerindeki kontrölünü azaltmıştır. Böylece 2000 yılında ortalama faiz haddinde ciddi bir düşüş olsa bile, faiz volatilitesi artmıştır. Bu oynaklık uzun vadeli aktiflerini kısa vadeli TL finansal araçlarla fonlayan bankacılık sektörü için bir rahatsızlık kaynağı teşkil etmektedir. Faiz haddi 2001 yılı ortasına kadar düşmeye devam edip, bundan sonra, kur bandının genişlemesiyle, artış gösterebilir. Kur bazlı istikrar programı uygulayan bir çok ülke deneyimi bize bankacılık sektörünün üç ile yedi yıl arasında ani, iki haneli bir devaluasyon olasılığına hazır olması gerektiğine işaret etmektedir. JEL Classification: E41, E44

§         “Turkish Banking Sector to 2004”, mimeo, April 2001.

§          “Elusive Seigniorage ”,  mimeo, May 2001.  

Abstract: The Turkish economy has experienced chronic inflation since the late 1970s and early 1980s. The impact of an inflationary macroeconomic  climate has become more pronounced on the Turkish economy following liberalization measures in the 1980s. Inability of consecutive governments  to rein in inflation has resulted in a greater degree of currency substitution with the ratio of M2(local currency money supply aggregate) to M2Y (local plus foreign currency money supply aggregate) falling to 50.7% by May 2001.  Higher currency substitution has also whittled down the ” tax base” for seiginorage gains to the government. Indeed, the significance of any seigniorage gain is much reduced given the greater cost of external debt service that accompanies a currency depreciation – itself a result of an excess money supply and lack of market confidence. This  paper  estimates  a money demand function to derive optimal seigniorage levels for plausible parameter values for Turkey. A second approach is to  present a Laffer curve for Turkey  derived from modeling historical data (which may not, of course, be indicative of the future). It appears that in a chronic inflation economy, optimal seigniorage gains are well below 10% of GDP. Furthermore, seigniorage gains may be dominated by the increased external debt service burden, as  certainly appears to be the case for Turkey. The paper presents panel regression results which are broadly supportive of high inflation leading to currency substitution as expected. JEL Classification: E65

§         “Turkey: Another Case of Twin Crises”, mimeo, August 2001.

§         “Elusive Seigniorage” (in Turkish), Iktisat, Işletme & Finans, #186: 34-48, September 2001.

§         “Financial Sector 2002-2007”, with E. Alidedeoglu, presented at Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TUSIAD), April 2002.  

§         “Financial Sector 2002-2007” (in Turkish), with E. Alidedeoglu, Iktisat, Işletme & Finans, #197: 68-88, August 2002.  

Ozet: Ekonomi yöneticilerinin çeşitli zamanlarda telaffuz ettikleri “bankacılık sektörü toplam aktiflerinin 2007 yılına kadar USD 500 milyara ulaşacağı” savı irdelenmiştir. Oluşturulan senaryo ışığında banka aktiflerinin 2007 yılında ancak USD 278 milyara yükseldiği görülmüştür. IMF (2001, 2002) tahminleri ışığında bu büyüklüğün 2004 yılı itibariyle ancak USD 190 milyara yükseldiği hesaplanmıştır. Uluslararası deneyimlere paralel olarak elde edilen bankaların yurtiçi kredi hacminin toplam yurtiçi kredi hacmine oranının 2007 yılında %60’a çıktığı belirtilmiştir. Söz konusu oran 1986-1998 yılı arasında ortalama %69 civarında iken 1998 yılında, Rusya krizinin de etkisiyle, %56’ya gerilemiştir. 2000 yılında uygulamaya konan kur çapalı istikrar programı dahilinde yaşanan kredi genişlemesine rağmen söz konusu oran, %45’e gerilemiştir. Bu oranın zaman içinde hızla gerilemesi kamu borçlanma gereğinin yurtiçi tasarrufları üzerine yaptığı baskıyı net bir şekilde göstermektedir. Kamu borç stokunun yüksek faiz kısa vade yapısının yarattığı kar topu etkisinden kurtularak GSYİH’ya olan oranı 2001 yılından itibaren gerileme trendine girse de, özel sektöre açılan kredilerin çok hızlı artmayacağı öngörülmektedir. JEL Classification: E41, E44, E47

§         “Financial Sector in Turkey: 2002-2007”, with E. Alidedeoglu, mimeo, August 2002.  

Abstract: This article examines the plausibility of attaining Turkish economic policymakers’ goal of a banking sector with assets of half a trillion US Dollars in five years. The methodology involves broad money forecast for the period to be examined. The broad money aggregate  is then dissected to its asset counterparts (liabilities equal assets) under various assumptions. Loans are simulated to rise to 60% of the domestic credit volume by 2007 in line with international experiences. Loan to assets ratio had been around 69%  in the early 1990s, gradually falling to 45% despite the credit expansion under the exchange rate-based stabilization scheme in 2000.  The decline of this ratio is obviously indicative of the preponderance of public sector borrowing needs on the financial system. Total banking sector assets rise to a mere US$ 278 billion by 2007 under a moderate economic growth scenario. JEL Classification: E41, E44, E47

§       “Deposit Insurance Premium Practices in Various Countries” (in Turkish), in “Cost Factors Faced by the Banking Sector”, in Akar, Eratalar, Gökkent, Hedili &Yeni, Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TUSIAD), March 2003.

 §          “An International Comparison of Reserve Requirement Practices and the Latest Modifications in Their Application in Turkey“ (in Turkish), in “Cost Factors Faced by the Banking Sector”, in Akar, Eratalar, Gökkent, Hedili &Yeni, Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TUSIAD), March 2003.

§         “Failure of an Exchange Rate Based Stabilization Plan in Turkey”, Eastern European Economics, v.41, # 1: 35-67, January-February 2003.  

Abstract: The Turkish exchange rate-based stabilization (ERBS) plan adopted at the start of 2000 has been a spectacular failure. The plan lasted a mere fourteen  months despite the use of  a relatively flexible peg regime and a pre-announced exchange rate exit strategy. The final three months of the currency regime was marred by the eruption of a banking sector crisis which quickly developed into a currency crisis, quelled only via additional external loans and an informal, blanket guarantee by the Sovereign of all banking sector liabilities. This was ultimately to no avail as the Lira was allowed to float following a full-fledged currency crisis in late February 2001. Familiar crisis leading indicators did not point to  imminent turmoil in November 2000. Indeed, it is safe to claim that no one foresaw the November crisis – although signs of matters amiss surfaced a fortnight before - despite concerns about eventual dire developments. To identify the source of the November crisis, one must weigh diverse factors which led agents in the economy, and banks in particular, to expect higher interest rates after Fall.This paper argues that the failure of the program has little to do with traditional explanations for ERBS flops. A microeconomic issue, the phasing in of stricter prudential  currency position rules - ironically, to strengthen the banking sector -, may have been much more significant in undermining the stabilization plan than is recognized. Current account imbalances, credibility loss, predatory competition, bank takeovers by authorities have, nevertheless, provided rich sources of underlying tension. JEL Classification: E44, E65

§         “Policy Suggestions with Regards to Banking Sector Costs: Factors Affecting Intermediation Spreads”, (in Turkish) Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TUSIAD), Swissotel Istanbul, March 20th, 2003.

§         “An Exchange Rate Policy to Please All ?”, Investor #20: 72-73, September 2003.

§         “Credit, Deposit Interest Spreads in Turkey”, submitted for publication.  

Abstract: Gross outstanding loans as a proportion of GNP stood at a mere 32%  at the end of 2001  in Turkey. High credit interest rates have remained an impediment to greater financial sector depth. The wide differential between Turkish Lira loan interest rates and deposit rates – the intermediation spread – may be ascribed to the influence of several factors. Prime among these  is chronic, volatile inflation. Gradually tackling price instability will no doubt bring intermediation spreads in Turkey closer in line with global levels. Meanwhile, other factors which directly affect spread levels could be dealt with much more speedily. An examination of spread determinants in the context of Turkey whilst presenting international best-practice standards provides a useful beginning point. Spread levels simulated via a stylized model adopted from Montes-Negret & Papi (1996) provide indicative orders of adjustment for various policy actions, such as raising the capital to asset ratio from 8% to 12%, and impact of reserve fund remuneration. Local currency  intermediation spreads are clearly higher in Turkey in comparison to other countries, in part because of relatively higher imposed costs. JEL Classification: E44, G21

§         “Regional Integration in the Middle East and North Africa”, forthcoming.  

§         “Turco-Syrian Trade Prospects”, working paper.

§         "Asset Markets and Business Cycles: The Case of the Real Estate Market in Turkey”, submitted for publication.


§         “E-Views in 15 Minutes”, e-views user's guide (in Turkish) with M. Sengun.

§         “Excel in 15 Minutes”, excel user's guide (in Turkish).


§         Contributions in local media:

-            Participation in monthly and quarterly forecast polls conducted by cnbc-e and NTVMSNBC

-            Interviews with CNN Turk, cnbc-e, NTV,  and various newspapers

-            Polls conducted by Dünya Business Daily  

-            Articles in NTVMSNBC  

            - Elements of Economic Growth (in Turkish), April 2002


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